July was frustrating : after getting payrolls right and seeing a fresh high water mark, I was too slow to reduce in the face of the Fed's jawboning. As usual, when you start trying to defend P&L I ended up buying highs and selling lows, until I got fed up with my own wrong-headedness and cut properly just after mid month. Net-net, July ended up with a 12.6% loss, split between the following areas :
The driver has been US fixed income, not surprisingly. The data has been extremely strong in my opinion, payrolls notwithstanding. Rates did actually move marginally higher over the month, which makes a loss in this area even more inexcusable. New month resolutions :
- don't spend money on option premium
- run smaller positions
- don't trade reactively
Remaining positions are short AUD against USD and NZD, despite it being a very consensus trade, short EDZ7 and TYU3 and short gold again, all in less than half the size of late June.
All basic stuff. The most frustrating part is that if I'd had the discipline to do absolutely nothing at all I'd have made money in July. Time for a refresher course in trading discipline.