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Saturday, 26 January 2013

US : the pain trade in stocks is still higher, and the main threat to it comes from a fixed income selloff - which is easy to hedge in a high risk/return way. It's getting close to the point where the rally extinguishes the covered calls (which expire on 15Feb anyway)
Long 100 x esh3 futures, short 50 x Feb15 1470 and 50 x Feb15 1475 calls
Long 50 * EDZ4, short 125 * EDZ7
Long 250 * 3EM6 98.125 puts

UK : stocks are very cheap, especially with a weakening pound. Not a very balanced portfolio of equities, but that's another story. I think gilts are in trouble (QE finished, over-owned as a safe haven from the eurozone and no progress on the deficit. Carney is an unknown quantity.) The middle of the short sterling curve (Jun 16 at 1.35%) ignores the inflation situation and the fact that the government will change in 2015. Miliband and Balls perhaps ? Farage would be too much to hope for ! Either way, there should be some serious risk premium in this sector.
 Short 100 L M6
Short 20 G H3
Long 10000 BP/ LN Eqty, Short 10 BP/ Mar13 470 calls
Long 7000 RR/ LN Eqty, Short 7 RR. Mar13 920 calls
Long 225000 SXX LN Eqty
Long 3500 ELTA LN Eqty
Long 6500 PIN LN Eqty

Japan : the reflation trade, so long usdjpy (small right now, but will add on a pullback below 90) and a full size position in equities, split between index futures/options and shipping stocks.
Long 0.5m usdjpy
Long 25 NIH3
Long 20 NIH3 11000 calls
Short 20 NIH3 11500 calls
Short 20 NIH3 10000 puts
Long 40000 9101 JP Eqty
Long 30000 9104 JP Eqty
Long 55000 9107 JP Eqty

Nothing in Europe : too hard there.

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